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November 2, 2010

Similarity of Economic Structure among Asean+3 Economies: A Multivariate analysis based on Maastricht Treaty Criterion

Filed under: Karya ilmiah — Tags: , , , , — achsani @ 7:11 am

Noer Azam Achsani
Department of Economics and Graduate School of Management and Business
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mial: achsani@yahoo.com (preferred) or achsani@mb.ipb.ac.id

Hari Wijayanto
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Sciences and Mathematics
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: hari@ipb.ac.id

Almufidha Agustyarti
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Sciences and Mathematics
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: aola_sweety@yahoo.com

Dina Lianitasari
Brighten Institute, Jalan Merak No 14 Bogor, Indonesia
E-mail: dina_lianitasari@yahoo.com

Abstract

The success story of the EU in establishing a single market in 1999 have motivated ASEAN region to further integrate their economy towards ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) 2020. Theoretically, economic integration can succeed, when there is homogeneity among the member countries. The purpose of this paper is to classify the economy of ASEAN+3 countries based on Maastricht Treaty Criterion using k-means clustering analysis. Then, multivariate statistical analysis using biplot and procrustes will be applied for observing the characteristic differences between two periods, i.e. before the Asian economic crisis (1996-2001) and after the crisis (2002-2006).

The results show that there are still some clusters among ASEAN+3 countries. The advanced countries tend to gather in one cluster, while the developing countries gather in another cluster. Furthermore, the results also suggest that the configurations tend to be stable over time, i.e. in the crisis period and in the period after the crisis. The advanced countries do not have any great movements and therefore they are more stable in compare to the developing countries in the region. As a result, the integration process among ASEAN+3 countries should be handled carefully. Otherwise, the integration will not function well and the benefits of the integration will mainly goes to the more developed countries as warned by Yamazawa.

Keywords: ASEAN+3, economic integration, clustering, biplot, procrustes

Artikel selengkapnya dalam PDF File Klik disini

Sumber: http://www.eurojournals.com/ejss_16_03_08.pdf

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